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Trolling The Economy
With an election looming it is no surprise that efforts to sway voters via economic framing have been heightened. There are, however, the usual and predictable responses, and then there is what can...
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PCE and Incomes Paint The GDP Problem
The monthly PCE and income figures that were released this week were already incorporated into the advance estimate for Q1 GDP. Given that March wasn’t as bad as it could have been, and that PCE within...
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What To Do About Spending Figures
Any reasonably or relatively objective view of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ estimates for PCE and Personal Income (personal income and outlays) render more questions than answers; more doubts than...
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Just Not There; Income To Spending To Inflation
Nominal personal spending grew by just over 4% in October 2016, a number that sounds impressive by virtue of what we have become used to in this economy. That was much less than the 5.2% in spending...
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The Actual Underside of ‘Solid’
One of the driving forces of populism is this very keen sense of dissonance. We are told one thing only to observe another, with the basis for that first thing being little more than the credentials of...
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Not A Cycle; Weakness Produces Further Weakness No Matter How Confident
If economists are hoping for more than signs of wage acceleration, revisions to the Personal Income data series are going to make it that much harder to justify still seeing them. Income was revised...
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It’s National Income That Should Be Setting Expectations
With all the focus on the unemployment rate, and therefore wages, Economists have been given the luxury (of sorts) of not having to answer for a larger, more basic incongruity. At 4.1% unemployment,...
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